🧠 Smart People Trade. The Rest Watch?

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Today marks the end of March, but the market hasn’t been kind to traders. April looks more promising based on history – but in 2025, will Trump’s policies get in the way?

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ℹ️ Crypto Sources From The Crypto Fire ℹ️

• 🚀 BTC Drops to $81K – What’s Going On?

• 👀 You Need To Be Smart To Stay In Crypto Market? Nah …

• ⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

ℹ️ Crypto Sources From The Crypto Fire ℹ️

🚀 BTC Drops to $81K – What’s Going On?

1️⃣ Expert Explain

Bitcoin dropped to $81,274 on March 30, 2025—and it didn’t happen in a vacuum. The U.S. stock market also slipped, with DOW futures down 206 points and the $SPX ( ▲ 0.74% ) falling 0.56%, as shared by Spencer Hakimian on X.

This isn’t new – Bitcoin and stocks often move together when things get shaky. It’s a reminder that macro stuff still controls the whole market.

So, what’s causing the pressure?

👉 Trump’s Tariffs.

Trump is calling April 2 “Liberation Day” as new tariffs kick in for many countries. It’s part of a bigger economic strategy, but it’s making markets nervous.

👉 Sticky Inflation.

Last week’s PCE data showed higher-than-expected inflation. Add to that a 12-year low in consumer confidence, and yeah – recession fears are back.

👉 Recession Warnings.

Goldman Sachs just raised the odds of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35%. Nic Puckrin (Coin Bureau) thinks there’s a 40% chance of recession in 2025.

And when macro uncertainty spikes, people usually pull back from high-risk assets like crypto. So it’s no surprise that traders are going risk-off, waiting things out.

But it’s not all doom and gloom.

🔹 Michael Saylor is still stacking sats – he recently said “more Bitcoin needs to be bought.”

🔹 CryptoQuant data shows accumulation wallets are still growing.

🔹 And the U.S. is slowly moving forward with legal frameworks like a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund.

So even if prices dip – $77K, $65K, whatever – it’s part of a bigger picture.

2️⃣ BTC Ends March in the Red, but April Might Be Different

Bitcoin is set to close March 2025 down about 2.7%, dropping from $85K → $82.2K.
Not a massive dip—but top altcoins got hit harder:

• $ETH.X ( ▲ 2.03% ) down 20%

• $SOL.X ( ▲ 0.9% ) down 14%

• $DOGE.X ( ▲ 4.35% ) down 20%

Most large-cap coins didn’t grow at all. As a result, total crypto market cap fell to around $2.75 trillion.

📊 Looking Ahead: April Has Historically Been Strong

According to Coinglass data:

• April averages a +12.98% $BTC.X ( ▲ 1.38% )  gain — 4th best month of the year

• From 2016 to 2020, April was green every year

• In 2017–2020, April saw gains of 30%+ each year

• But in 2024, BTC actually fell 14.76% in April after hitting a new ATH of $73.8K in March

🕒 April = Q2 Kickoff

Historically, Q2 is strong for Bitcoin: BTC averages a +26.89% gain in Q2 (since 2013)

That’s why, after a -12.18% BTC drop in Q1, and a massive -45.97% for ETH,
traders are hoping Q2 brings the bounce.

👀 You Need To Be Smart To Stay In Crypto Market? Nah …

Some folks bought Bitcoin in 2016 or 2017 and still felt late.

Why? Because others got in at $30, $100, or $200.

Today, it’s the same. New investors wish they started sooner.

That feeling never really goes away. It’s part of every cycle.

What Is a Strong Position in Crypto?

A strong position isn’t about buying low and selling high perfectly → It’s the result of holding, learning, and staying consistent through multiple market cycles.

It’s not a strategy. It’s a mindset → By going through market ups and downs, you build emotional strength and better judgment.

When altcoins crash hard, panic hits. Totally normal. Experienced people may handle it better… But no one skips the fear phase when they’re new.

Each cycle builds emotional strength – slowly.

1️⃣ Cycle Psychology: Why Even Early Buyers Feel Late

Feeling late is universal

Someone who bought $BTC.X ( ▲ 1.38% ) at $1,000 in 2016 still felt “late” compared to those who bought at $100.

New investors in 2024 feel the same when looking back at $20K prices.

The feeling never leaves—you just learn to ignore it.

Everyone goes through this phase

• Regret for not entering earlier

• Panic during crashes

• Doubt during long flat markets

2️⃣ Why Time > Timing

Buying early ≠ instant profit

Many bought early but didn’t sell when $BTC.X ( ▲ 1.38% ) hit $20K. Then it crashed.

Belief in the long term helped them stay, but not without pain.

Strong hands are built in crashes

It’s not the price you enter – it’s the patience you hold.

Holding through drawdowns like $20K → $3.5K builds the real edge.

3️⃣ Zooming Out = Clarity

Euphoria → Panic → Boredom → Belief

Each stage affects decision-making:

• Euphoria: Overconfidence leads to overexposure

• Panic: Fear causes early selling

• Boredom: Low activity leads to doubt or neglect

• Belief: Conviction grows through experience

Understanding where you are in the cycle helps reduce emotional errors.

→ Zooming out lets you: • See trends, not panic

• Hold with conviction

• Focus on the big picture

→ Strong positions aren’t built on luck

It’s not about getting in early. Or being the smartest →It’s about being patient.

Consistent buyers who stuck around built strong portfolios—slowly.

They didn’t time the market.

They just stayed in it.

→ Actually, talks about early. So… How Early Are We Really?

Despite being around for over a decade, Bitcoin still only makes up 1.3% of the global money supply.

That’s tiny. Which means there’s still a lot of room to grow.

📊 Bitcoin access by region:

• U.S.: 14% of users

• Africa: 1.6%

Huge difference. But also? Huge opportunity—especially in emerging markets.

📦 How Are 21 Million BTC Distributed?

According to River Financial (2024 data):

• Individuals: 14.56M BTC (69.4%)

• Enterprises: 914K BTC (4.4%)

• Investment Funds & ETFs: 1.29M BTC (6.1%)

• Governments: 297K BTC (1.4%)

• Satoshi/Patoshi (estimated): 968K BTC (4.6%)

• Other Institutions (bankruptcies, DeFi): 190K BTC (0.9%)

• Lost BTC (unrecoverable): 1.57M BTC (7.5%)

• Unmined BTC (still to come): 1.2M BTC (5.7%)

So when institutions, governments, and new investors really start paying attention…

There’s not much Bitcoin left to go around.

We’re still early. For real. 👀

4️⃣ All Assets – Crypto, stocks, gold, real estate—it’s the same cycle.

Gold hit a peak in 2011. Then it dropped and stayed flat for years. Only in the past few years did those investors see gains.

Now they look smart—but they waited nearly a decade.

The pattern repeats:

• Impatience exits early.

• Consistency wins.

5️⃣ Why This Matters

→ You don’t need perfect timing

• You will feel late at some point

• You will go through losses

• You win by staying when others quit

→ 3 Steps of Position Building:

• Enter (anytime—yes, even “late”)

• Hold through multiple cycles

• Build strength, not just profits

🎯 Bottom Line:

Strong positions aren’t about being early, smart, or lucky.

They’re built through patience, consistency, and staying in the game—especially when it’s hard.

You don’t need to be first. You just need to stay.

⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

✅ Is Crypto AI the real deal or just hype? CoinGecko says 27% of users believe it’s key to the future, while 19.9% are cautiously optimistic. The buzz is real, but long-term success depends on whether the tech actually delivers.

🧾 California’s new bill (AB-1052) makes it clear—people have the right to own crypto without discrimination. It also blocks unfair payment limits, protects unclaimed assets, and bans officials from promoting coins.

🔄 PumpSwap, the new decentralized exchange from Pump.fun, hit $2.43 billion in cumulative trading volume within just 10 days of launch (as of March 30). A later update to the data corrected this to $10 billion, per Dune Analytics.

💰 FTX will start paying back creditors on May 30 with $11.4B in cash. Some are upset since payouts are in dollars, not crypto—especially now that Bitcoin has 4x’d since the collapse.

🚀 The Nation Token (NATO) just launched after a massive airdrop to 1 million wallets. Now trading on Uniswap, Poloniex, and AscendEX—with community governance and growth campaigns kicking off soon.

🤡 Meme Of The Day

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.