🧟 BTC $80K Dip to $250K Boom is Locked!?

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If you’ve been living on-chain lately… you can probably feel it: liquidity on DEXs is fading fast, according to DefiLlama. DEX volume (Nov 1-18): ~$262.5B:

• Aug: ~$300B

• Sep: ~$277B

• Oct: ~$370B (same period)

Total DEX vol for October was ~$568.6B → So far, November’s only at ~50% of that. We’re clearly losing some DeFi liquidity. For those building or trading in DeFi, it’s “oxygen mask mode” for now 🥀😵

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 How to get the latest real chart analysis?

• ⭐ 3 next BTC scenarios you should know

• ⭐ This crash is a macro shock, not a real break

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

If you’ve been wondering who’s behind our trend calls and TA breakdowns… He’s Eugene – a real trader who’s been in the game for years.

He’s the one analyzing every trend, drawing real levels, and calling setups for us, not just copy-pasting X (Twitter). He’s seen the wins, the losses, the fakeouts, the blowups,…

You’ll now see way more detailed chart breakdowns for multiple coins live on our TradingView channel here.

Next up, he also just published a post, showing a quick breakdown of the top crypto and trading strategy shifts on the market right now (100% Free to read):

😰 3 NEXT BTC SCENARIOS YOU SHOULD KNOW

We know, things are messy out there. Everyone’s either panicking or calling it a new bear market. But before you fully spiral, let’s slow down a bit.

Here’s what’s really going on, and 3 possible outcomes we need to keep in mind:

• BTC’s now sitting right on the 88K–90K zone, which has been a key level in past cycles

• This drop is mostly from leverage getting blown up and people over-positioned

• No huge fundamental cracks in crypto (we write about this in part 2 below)

Right now, we’re in the “gray zone.” Not bullish. Not fully bearish. And that’s usually when people make emotional mistakes. So let’s not.

1/ Scenario 1: BTC Holds Support, Market Stabilizes

If history repeats, we could bounce from here. This zone has triggered recoveries before. From the top in Oct, BTC’s down almost 30%. The whole market shed $600B.

Just on Oct 11, over $1B in futures got liquidated. But institutions are still buying:

• MicroStrategy added 8,178 BTC (they’re now holding nearly 650K BTC!)

• El Salvador added 1,098 BTC

• BitMine scooped up over 54K ETH

Even Cameron Winklevoss called “this is the last time you’ll ever be able to buy Bitcoin below 90,000 USD.”

But don’t expect a V-shaped recovery. The market still needs to absorb the leverage and prove real buy demand.

Yeah, there’s a scary-looking death cross forming (MA50 crossing below MA200), but in bull markets, that’s often followed by a short-term bounce, not a crash.

2/ Scenario 2: BTC Breaks Support, Panic Spreads

If BTC falls below 88k, a drop to 80–85k is very possible. That would freak people out.

But again, this wouldn’t be about BTC being broken. It’d be because USD liquidity is drying up and leverage is still being flushed.

Even Arthur Hayes said this is more about the macro than crypto itself. Also, have you noticed how everyone is suddenly talking about BTC again?

Social dominance just hit a 4-month high. It’s in every feed, every group, every Telegram chat. And that’s usually a signal people are panicking… which in the past, has often lined up with local bottoms.

Not a guarantee, but definitely worth watching.

3/ Scenario 3: Dead-Cat Bounce Before More Pain

This one’s sneaky.

We get a nice 5–10% bounce, everyone breathes again, some folks even FOMO back in thinking the worst is over.

But it turns out to be a fakeout.

• Volume is weak

• No real money coming in

• Whales are selling into the pump

• And then… boom, we break lower

These “fake recoveries” happen a lot in shaky markets. If you jump in too soon, especially with leverage, it hurts bad when the next leg down starts.

So how do you spot it? If price is going up but:

• Volume stays low

• On-chain shows big wallets selling

• Macro looks shaky
  …then it’s probably not the real deal yet.

If you believe BTC still has long-term upside (and I do), this isn’t the time to sell everything in fear. This kind of reset is normal.

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🧐 WAS THIS CRASH JUST A MACRO SHOCK, NOT A TREND BREAK?

Wintermute just dropped their weekly report, and honestly it makes sense. This recent crypto drop is not about fundamentals. It all started when people got too excited thinking the Fed would cut rates in December.

That rate cut probability was sitting at 70%. Then Powell came out and basically said, “Hold up.” Now, it’s just 42%.

When markets realize cheap money might not be coming soon… everything risky gets hit. And crypto, being the most sensitive risk asset, gets hit the hardest.

Here’s what actually went down:

• Crypto underperformed stocks all summer

• $BTC.X ( ▼ 1.35% ) and $ETH.X ( ▼ 3.36% ) got weaker than altcoins (which almost never happens in downtrends)

• Altcoins were already weak but even solid niches like privacy or fee-switch stuff lost strength

• GMCI-30 fell 12%

• AI, DePIN, gaming, meme sectors all dropped 14-18%

It was like everyone risk-off at once. Then, just yesterday, as we reported in the last newsletter, BTC broke $100K for the first time since May.

It tried to hold that line twice this month but during the U.S. sessions, the sell pressure just kept coming.

Even whales started selling earlier than usual, some of them probably expecting 2026 to be rough if the 4-year cycle plays out.

But here’s the real takeaway: There’s nothing wrong with crypto itself right now. The pressure came from macro stuff in the U.S.

And when you zoom out, the backdrop isn’t that bad:

• Japan is prepping a $110B stimulus package

• China is continuing monetary easing

• The U.S. is ending its balance sheet tightening next month

• Fiscal spendings are still active

So yes, positions have been flushed. But to really reset the mood, BTC needs to climb back above its range. That’s when recovery gets real.

For my team at The Crypto Fire, it was a confidence check.

People got too hyped on the Fed pivot, and now we’re back to reality. But the strong stuff will survive and come back harder.

If you’re still here, it’s probably time to stop trading fear. In the meantime, chill, don’t overtrade, and keep an eye on the majors.

Eugene Le (our analyst) said he has already stopped out of ETH, but he’s still holding BTC because he believes that after a deep dip, it will bounce back.

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🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

CZ speaks out with a humble response after Trump’s pardon, he plans to reinvest in the U.S. if $4.3B fine is returned. Read the post

Coinbase’s $MON.X ( ▼ 2.09% ) sale opened strong but stalled fast. Only 55% of the 7.5B MON supply sold, far below the $187M goal. Read more

BitMEX Arthur Hayes predicts BTC could slide to $80K–$85K. But he also expects a strong rebound to $200K–$250K by year-end. Read more

While retail panic hits the market with $2.6B crypto sell-off, Harvard tripled its BTC ETF holdings to 6.8M shares. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.