🔻 BTC = $94K BearGate is Bear-ly Alive

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For the first time in 191 days, BTC closes the day below $100,000 😰 The latest drop in the crypto market has pushed many top coins to multi-month lows.

We’ll show you how below. But when compared to the 2022 crash, today’s market is actually calm. Back then, it was like watching dominoes fall. One disaster after another:

• Luna collapsed

• 3AC went bankrupt

• Then even FTX, one of the biggest exchanges, imploded

• Followed by Genesis, BlockFi, Axie Infinity, and the entire NFT market

At that point, no one knew what would survive. Yes, prices now are down. But we haven’t seen any major systemic collapse. Infrastructure is holding up.

Real users are still here. Real capital is still flowing. Crypto still works. So don’t panic guys, take a break, and stay calm!

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 👀 Macro environment turns risk-off

• ⭐ Crypto is bleeding. What’s coming next?

• ⭐ How to win with or without an altcoin szn

• 🔥 Burning hot takes for the road

Here’s a clear look at why the macro environment is tightening again and how that pressure is driving sharp crypto drops across the market:

🔻 CRYPTO IS BLEEDING. WHAT’S COMING NEXT?

Like I said above, crypto just entered one of its most fragile phases in months. Everything is tightening at once. $BTC.X ( ▼ 6.01% ) fell to $97K.

The market is still searching for something solid to hold onto. Right now, both stocks and crypto are falling under the same weight: a cautious, uncertain market that doesn’t know what to trust.

There’s not just one reason, it’s a mix of bad timing and bad signals:

• CPI didn’t drop on schedule, leaving everyone guessing about real inflation

• Rate cut hopes for December collapsed, the odds dropped from 95.5% to around 50%

• Verizon cut 15,000 jobs, 15% of its workforce. When even stable sectors like telecom start cutting, fears of recession and inflation spike

• Tech stocks tanked, Tesla down 6.6%, NVIDIA down 6%, pulling the whole market down

Crypto, as always, absorbed the worst of it. In just one night, more than $750M in longs were wiped out. ETH lost $3,200. Altcoins bled out.

→ $110B in market cap disappeared.

And what about the Fed? With no fresh data, Fed officials turned hawkish.

Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) believes inflation is still too high. No rush to cut.

Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), Mary Daly (San Francisco), all shared cautious tones. The message was clear: don’t expect rate cuts anytime soon.

But not everyone is bearish.

JPMorgan is still sticking to their $170K target for BTC in the next 6–12 months. They say $94K is a solid support, especially post-halving.

Michael Saylor doubled down too, saying Bitcoin could surpass gold’s market cap by 2035.

→ So while the short-term is messy, long-term conviction is still strong in some corners.

So what’s the next move? Honestly, it depends on how macro data plays out:

• If the Fed stays tough and data stays unclear → we might see more sharp drops

• If things calm down a bit → we could enter a choppy sideways phase. No big trend, but support zones might start holding

• If we get any positive surprise (inflation cooling, softer Fed tone, big players buying in) → we could bounce harder than people expect

Right now isn’t the time to chase bottoms or overreact to every candle. We don’t control the market. But we can control how we move through it.

So yeah, keep your eyes open, and don’t let fear or FOMO push you around. You good out there? Hope we’re all good!

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💌 HOW TO SURVIVE WITH OR WITHOUT AN ALTCOIN SEASON?

Most people lose money in crypto because they treat the market like a yes-or-no game. They hope the market moves the way they want it to.

→ “Will the market go up or down?” or “Will altseason happen or not?”

You don’t need to predict the market to win. But you do need to stop betting on just one outcome. Seasoned investors don’t play that game. They don’t wait and hope.

They plan for all scenarios and prep their portfolio for each. That’s called probabilistic thinking. And in crypto, it’s a must.

Instead of asking: “Is altseason coming?”. Let’s try asking: “How many outcomes could realistically happen?”

Because when markets crash, most people panic and try to predict short-term moves. But a probability-first investor starts asking better questions:

• How many ways could price move from here?

• What’s the probability of each scenario?

• In each case, how much could I gain or lose?

This kind of thinking helps you stay calm. It gives you structure. It turns guessing into planning.

🔻 Real-world example: Is Altcoin Season coming?

We conducted a small survey within our network. Over 50% believe we’ve entered a bear market. 22% think this cycle will stretch to 2026, only reversing when the Fed eases.

16% still believe in the 4-year cycle, expecting a strong BTC move later this year, bringing altseason with it.

10% believe we’ve entered a slow-but-steady growth phase like traditional equities, like no more long winters, no more explosive altseasons.

On Polymarket:

• ETH hitting a new ATH this year: 18% probability

• BTC reaching $120K: 36%

• BTC hitting $130K: 18%

So… are we sleeping on the chance of an altseason? If you’ve ever studied probability, you know how expected value (EV) works:

A good decision doesn’t have to be right every time. It’s one where your gains (when right) outweigh your losses (when wrong).

If you repeat that kind of decision enough, your total return stays positive. This is how professional funds, quant systems, and experienced traders think.

Forget guessing the next candle. Ask yourself:

• If altseason does come, how do I make the most of it?

• If it doesn’t, can my portfolio survive without blowing up?

These two alone will tell you if you’re investing with a plan or just hoping for the best.

Everyone has a different view on altseason. But I still believe it’s coming. Maybe not in the next few weeks. But we’ve waited years, what’s a bit more?

You just need to survive the wrong paths and be ready when the right one shows up. And you’ll win, no matter when.

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🔥 BURNING HOT TAKES FOR THE ROAD

After Vitalik’s tweet, $ZK.X ( ▼ 6.0% ) & $STRK.X ( ▲ 2.25% ) both did over 2x. The community felt like L2 season is back. But this belongs to Privacy and x402 narratives. Read more

aPriori, one of Monad ecosystem’s flagship projects, is accused of creating 14,000 wallets to farm its own airdrop (over 60%.) Read more

Circle is about to pull a U-turn on Arc Network with a native token. Didn’t they say that $USDC.X ( ▲ 0.01% ) was already the native gas token? Read more

Aerodrome (Base) x Velodrome (Optimism) officially merge into Aero. $AERO.X ( ▼ 13.35% ) & $VELO.X ( ▼ 9.56% ) will merge into a single $AERO. Read more

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⚠ This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.