The Crypto AI Agent

🎁 $1B Airdrop Coming, You in?

Bitcoin July 2025 Technical Prediction.

the-crypto-fire-banner

July 2025: Bitcoin about to crash… or explode past $150K? After 195 days of silence, Bitcoin is now stuck below key levels… while whales cash out billions… and the Fed might get a new boss. How both a sharp dip and a moonshot to $150K could happen back-to-back?

Here’s what we got for you today:

crypto-chart

⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

🌍 Last night was wild. Bad news came from all sides, both geopolitics and trade are heating up fast. Middle East tensions are rising again. Meanwhile in the West: Trump threatened 30–35% tariffs on Japan. Also claimed Israel had agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. And yeah… $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.39% ) broke below $106K overnight, $ETH.X ( ▲ 6.56% ) dropped under $2.4K.

📢 Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” just narrowly passed the Senate with a 51-50 vote. But it left out one thing many were hoping for: crypto tax relief. And by the time the bill passed, none of the crypto provisions made it in. Even Elon Musk voiced strong opposition and hinted at forming a new party if this keeps going.

🧠 Most Fed members still expect at least one rate cut in 2025. But current numbers point to a higher chance in September (74.8% chance of a 25bps cut), not July (only 18.6% chance of a 25bps cut). Analysts now believe the first rate cut of 2025 will likely happen in September, almost a year after the last cut in Dec 2024.

⚔️ Polygon Labs just launched its new Layer-2 blockchain Katana. It officially went mainnet and immediately attracted over $248 million in TVL. 1 billion $KAT tokens will be distributed as rewards over 2 years. Early users got “Katana Krates” NFTs + KAT allocations. Core protocols are already live: $SUSHI.X ( ▲ 9.69% ) , $MORPHO.X ( ▲ 6.4% ) , $GAMMA.X ( ▲ 18.58% ) ,…

🚨 SEC just approved the first ever multi-asset crypto ETF in the U.S. – Grayscale’s GDLC fund. Now it’s going fully public, listed on NYSE Arca, open to everyone. If GDLC runs smoothly, $XRP.X ( ▲ 4.36% ) , $SOL.X ( ▲ 5.42% ) , and $ADA.X ( ▲ 9.19% ) ETFs could be next. Also in line: Bitwise’s BITW – a broader crypto index fund that might get approved soon too.

⚠️ ETH and SOL Got a Boost: Good News Finally Landed for Altcoins

While everyone’s watching Bitcoin hold the $100K line, something way bigger just happened under the radar…

  • Robinhood made a surprise move.

  • A first-of-its-kind Solana ETF is launching this week.

  • And suddenly, staking, real-world assets, and tokenized stocks are all back in play.

1️⃣ Robinhood Launches New Layer-2 with Arbitrum + Tokenized Stocks

On June 30, they announced a new Layer-2 blockchain (built with Arbitrum) and a bold plan to offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs for European users.

It just enabled staking for $ETH and $SOL directly on their platform for U.S. users.

What’s new?

  • 200+ U.S. stocks + ETFs will be available as tokenized assets

  • Users in the EU will soon be able to buy, trade, and receive dividends on-chain

  • All tokens are launching on Arbitrum, then later moved to a custom Robinhood Layer-2 built with Arbitrum’s help

  • News of this collab helped push $ARB.X ( ▲ 8.75% ) token up +22%

At launch, trading will be limited to 24/5 via U.S. broker partners. But Robinhood plans to list these tokenized stocks on Bitstamp for 24/7 trading, and eventually let users hold them directly and use in DeFi.

😁 Fun fact: CEO Vlad Tenev already tested trading a tokenized OpenAI stock on Arbitrum.

More big updates:

  • Crypto futures launching in Europe

  • Crypto staking (ETH & SOL) coming to U.S. users

  • New perks: higher early yields, credit card rewards, AI tools, tax calculators, advanced charts

This shows just how serious Robinhood is about going deep into crypto, right as regulations across the West are warming up.

Their stock ($HOOD ( ▲ 6.12% ) ) soared +12.77% on June 30, hitting a record high over $93.

2️⃣ First Solana ETF with Staking Launches Today Jul 2nd, A U.S. First

Rex-Osprey just made it official: on July 2, they’re launching the first-ever Solana ETF (SSK) in the U.S., and it’s doing something no one else has done yet…

It supports staking. What’s inside the SSK ETF?

  • Direct exposure to Solana (SOL)

  • 40% of the fund’s assets will be staked

  • Investors can earn staking rewards

  • This is the first U.S. crypto ETF to include staking

Unlike other Wall Street ETF proposals still waiting for SEC approval, SSK is launching under a C-corp ETF structure, which lets it go live without being blocked.

But there’s a catch:

  • Staking rewards are taxed inside the fund before they’re passed on to investors

  • This means effective fees are higher, even though the base management fee is 0.75%

Rex-Osprey said it cleared all SEC requirements and got the green light without restrictions. They’ve also filed for a staked Ethereum ETF, though no launch date is set yet.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says Rex-Osprey is clearly aiming to be first and grab demand before the SEC starts approving other altcoin spot ETFs.

But he also warned:

  • U.S. investors still prefer spot ETFs over futures-based ones

  • Solana futures ETFs have been live for 3 months but only pulled in $22M AUM

  • That’s small compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum

  • And the fact that BlackRock isn’t in the game yet makes some people doubt how far this trend can go

Still, Bloomberg gives Solana ETFs a 95% chance of being approved sometime in 2025, same as XRP and Litecoin.

Meanwhile, SOL price is up slightly, as optimism grows that more ETF approvals could follow soon.

$BTC is still holding steady at $106K – $107K. That’s 7 straight days above $100K since the Iran–Israel conflict broke out.

It’s a mix of opportunity and risk right now.

That’s why our Observation of the Day lays it all out, from price moves, on-chain flows, to the hottest narratives like ETFs, and staking, clear and concise.

💎 Bitcoin July 2025 Outlook: Traders Expect Dip Before Bitcoin Moonshot!

As July kicks off, traders are split between caution and confidence. Some expect a sharp liquidity sweep down to $109K, while others see strong macro tailwinds pushing Bitcoin toward a new all-time high above $110K.

Here’s what traders are watching and why both scenarios might happen back-to-back.

1️⃣ What Price Range Could Bitcoin Fall to in July 2025?

BTC is facing serious volatility as we enter July 2025, and it’s not looking great.

The price has slipped below two major support levels, sparking fears of a potential $100K retest.

Right now, Bitcoin seems trapped between a downtrend line and its moving averages (MA). That likely means choppy, sideways action over the next few days unless a breakout happens.

what-price-range-could-bitcoin-fall-to-in-july-2025

Source: TradingView

The RSI is flat near the midpoint, which means there’s no strong momentum in either direction. Not bullish, not bearish… just kinda stuck.

→ That leaves the market in a gray zone, where both buyers and sellers are fighting for control. According to technical analysis, if Bitcoin continues to fall and stays below its moving averages, the BTC/USDT pair could slide to the $104,500 support level.

If selling pressure picks up, the key psychological support at $100K might be tested. Right now, BTC/USDT has dropped below both the EMA and SMA, signaling that short-term traders are taking profits.

bitcoin-analysis

Source: TradingView

Buyers are now expected to defend the $104,500 level at all costs.

BTC selling pressure has surged in the first week of July 2025. Long-term holders (LTHs) are leading a new wave of profit-taking.

According to Glassnode:

  • Coins held for 3–5 years realized $849M in profit

  • The 7–10 year group took $485M

  • And 1–2 year holders locked in $445M

Daily realized profit hit $2.46B, while the 7-day average climbed to $1.52B — higher than the yearly average of $1.14B, though still below the $4–5B peaks in Q4 2024.

Despite the heavy selling, analyst Yonsei Dent (CryptoQuant) notes that steady demand is helping absorb the sell-off, keeping BTC’s price relatively stable.

Unlock Full Market Insights in This Part with Pro Plan

You’re reading a premium insight. Stay ahead of the crypto curve. Go beyond the headlines with full access to premium insights, in-depth analysis, and actionable investment narratives. FREE for 14 days – no commitment, cancel anytime.

Continue Reading with Pro Access >>

bitcoin-spent-output-age-bands

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands. Source: CryptoQuant

🤡 Meme Of The Day

crypto-meme

We read your emails, comments, and poll replies daily

Hit reply and say Hello – we’d love to hear from you!

Like what you’re reading?

If yes, you’ll love what’s happening inside The Crypto Fire Telegram version – our Telegram group where is no hype, no pressure. Just real conversations, insights, latest news, more trading analysis, entry,… and a few memes along the way. Jump in here → t.me/TheCryptoFireTG

And if you’ve got a friend deep in crypto (or just getting started), feel free to forward this to them. They can sign up here.

Cheers,

The Crypto Fire

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.


Powered by beehiiv

 

Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *