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👀 Trump’s Tokenverse

BTC Has the Right for a Bear Market!.

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Does Bitcoin deserve to enter a bear market now? The data says… maybe. For the past three cycles, Bitcoin has followed the same pattern around every halving: bottom first, then a huge rally, then… the crash. The 2024 halving just happened. Bitcoin already hit a new ATH. So what’s next?

Here’s what we got for you today:

crypto-price-chart

⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

🔥 Elon Musk just backed Trump, for real this time? After Trump posted on Truth Social calling on Gov. Gavin Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass to apologize for the LA riots, Elon Musk screenshotted the post and shared it on X. Are these two mending their love-hate bromance again? Too funny.

💥 Cetus protocol is officially back online after $223M hack. For user compensation, 15% of CETUS token supply will be allocated, with 5% unlocked now, 10% unlocks monthly over the next 12 months. Despite efforts, $CETUS.X ( ▲ 7.58% ) dropped 7% in 24 hours, now trading at ~$0.11.

👀 After a messy public clash, World Liberty Financial and the team behind memecoin $TRUMP.X ( ▲ 3.7% ) have officially squashed their beef. TRUMP memecoin has agreed to cancel the wallet project. In return, WLF will buy a “large amount” of TRUMP tokens and add them to their long-term reserve.

💰 A chart by journalist Molly White just breaks down a full-blown Trump-themed Web3 matrix. Back in 2019, Donald Trump slammed Bitcoin as a total scam. He’s now the face of one of the most complex crypto ecosystems out there and his whole family’s in on it. Including NFTs, memecoins, stablecoin, Bitcoin ETF, crypto fund & mining.

💡 Gemini – crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins – confidentially filed for an IPO. They’ve been teasing this for months, but the recent success of Circle’s IPO may have pushed them to finally pull the trigger. But not everyone’s hyped… Some argue that when exchanges rush to go public, it might signal a liquidity crunch…

🚨 Polymarket is Elon’s Truth Serum, and He’s Injecting It into X

Elon Musk just announced that Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, will become the official prediction partner of X.

x-partnership-with-polymarket

But this partnership dropped right after Musk’s public fallout with Donald Trump, and it feels less like a product move and more like a declaration of war on traditional media and politics.

So… why Polymarket? Why now? And what does it mean for the future of truth online?

1️⃣ The Partnership: X + Polymarket

On June 6, 2025, X confirmed its strategic partnership with Polymarket, the top decentralized prediction market today.

They’re framing this as a new chapter in the quest for truth online, where markets, not gatekeepers, help verify what’s real.

With hundreds of millions of users on X, this integration could bring event-based crypto predictions (aka betting on real-world outcomes via wallet) into the mainstream, and maybe even into the core Web3 experience of the platform.

→ Details are still under wraps, but both X and Polymarket have confirmed that odds and prediction tools will soon be integrated directly into posts and livestreams on X.

→ That means users could soon place bets in real time — on everything from the U.S. election to the next big sports final — with just a few taps. Following the announcement, its token $MATIC.X ( ▲ 3.81% ) saw a sharp price jump.

matic-price

Source: TradingView

2️⃣ Elon’s Take: “Markets > Polls”

Elon Musk has long believed that prediction markets offer a clearer lens on truth than traditional polls.

Back in October 2024, he mentioned Polymarket, the platform that saw millions of dollars wagered on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. And guess what? The markets were right: Trump won, just as Polymarket had predicted.

One French whale even made ~$80M by betting correctly on Trump vs. Harris, one of the largest political bets in Web3 history.

3️⃣ Polymarket’s Wild Rise (and Legal Trouble)

But with big wins come big scrutiny. With nearly $3.7B in trading volume during the U.S. presidential election season, it’s no surprise Polymarket is drawing regulator attention.

That event triggered legal troubles for Polymarket in the U.S., France, Thailand, Singapore, and Taiwan.

On June 8, 2025, France’s national gambling authority — Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) — launched an official investigation into Polymarket to assess its legality under French gambling laws.

Still, the growth hasn’t stopped. In April 2025, Polymarket hit an all-time high with 7,000+ new prediction markets and nearly $900M in monthly trading volume, even as active users dropped from 462K in January to 330K in April.

polymarket-new-markets-monthly

Polymarket New Markets Monthly. Source: TheBlockData

polymarket-active-traders-monthly

Polymarket Active Traders Monthly. Source: TheBlockData

polymarket-volume-monthly

Polymarket Volume Monthly. Source: TheBlockData

Legal gray zones aside, Polymarket continues to lead the global prediction market race.

4️⃣ The Political Subtext: Musk vs. Trump

The X vs Polymarket partnership was announced just days after a fiery clash between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, and the timing couldn’t be more loaded.

With tensions at an all-time high and political chaos swirling, Musk’s move to align X with Polymarket feels like more than just a business decision. It feels like a statement:

→ “I don’t trust politics. I trust markets.”

🐻 Bitcoin Has “Earned the Right” to Enter a Bear Market!

Bitcoin quietly hit a new all-time high on May 22, 2025, yet some analysts are already warning that the bull run may be peaking. Sounds strange, right? But historical data from Bitcoin Halving cycles suggests this might be exactly what’s supposed to happen.

So… is BTC still heading up? Or has it earned the right to step into a bear market?

1️⃣ A Quick History of Bitcoin Halving & Market Cycles

Every 4 years, Bitcoin undergoes a “Halving” event → reducing block rewards by 50%. Historically, this has shaped BTC’s long-term price cycles.

If we look at past Bitcoin Halving data, there’s a clear pattern:

  • BTC usually bottoms 1–1.5 years before a Halving

  • Then peaks 1–1.5 years after the Halving

a-quick-history-of-bitcoin-halving-and-market-cycles

Source: DefiWimar

So if Halving #4 happened in April 2024, that means… The next Bitcoin peak could land between April–October 2025. Yup, we might be right in the middle of that window right now.

⚠️ Important note: This doesn’t tell us how high BTC will go, just when it tends to hit its ATH based on past cycles.

In previous times, Bitcoin has topped out around:

bitcoin-halving

Source: Binance

  • Halving #1 (Nov 2012): Peak: $1,128 (367 days later)

  • Halving #2 (July 2016): Peak: $19,200 (after ~15 months)

  • Halving #3 (May 2020): Peak: $67,000 (368 days later)

2️⃣ What’s Happening in This Cycle (Halving #4 – April 2024)

Now, let’s review Bitcoin Halving #4 in April 2024. The Halving Basics:

  • Block #840,000 marked the halving

  • Mining reward dropped from 6.25 → 3.125 BTC

  • But here’s the shocker: $2.6M fee paid for that halving block (6x the usual $450K!)
    → No official explanation, but speculation says whales wanted to get into the “historic block”

Bitcoin’s Price Before the Halving:

bitcoin-price-chart

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView

  • Feb 22: ~$51,669

  • By end of Feb: Pushed past $62K

  • Then came the ATH:
    → March 14: Hit $73,750 🔥

  • Quick correction → dipped below $62K

  • March 31: Bounced back to $69,641

  • On Halving Day (April 19): BTC stood around $63,000

After Halving:

  • BTC spiked briefly to $66K

  • Then May 1: Dropped to $58,568, unexpected! 😬

  • But Bitcoin recovered again…

The Political Push: Trump’s Victory

  • Post-Trump win in Nov 2024 → demand exploded

  • BTC broke past $100K and hit a new ATH in May 2025

  • As of now: Trying to hold above the $100K support zone

Back in late 2022, the market was drowning in fear. $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.53% ) was sitting at $16K, and everyone thought it was heading for $10K… or even $5K.

Fast forward to May 22, 2025, Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $111K, breaking past the previous $107K top from January.

Sounds bullish? Definitely.
Surprising? Not really, if you understand the Halving cycle data.

→ This proves that historical data on Bitcoin Halving continues to hold true.

It is not known whether $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.53% ) will reach a new ATH in the future (from April to October 2025), but after reaching ATH, BTC will enter a correction phase.

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.


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