📉 Fed Decision Tonight: Altcoins Wait

Crypto Cheat Sheet | Binance Square | Telegram

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 🚨 Is Altseason Still Coming? Or Are We Coping?

• 👀 You Need To Be Smart To Stay In Crypto Market? Nah …

• ⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

---

🚨 Is Altseason Still Coming? Or Are We Coping?

BTC dominance is climbing. Altcoins are sluggish.

But if you zoom out, the cycle may just be doing what it always does.

1️⃣ Bitcoin Is Winning the Liquidity Game?

• Bitcoin has been on a solid run lately — and that’s great news for the overall market.

→ Bitcoin Dominance has surged to 63%, its highest point since January 2021.

This means Bitcoin is attracting most of the market’s liquidity and attention.

• Altcoins have moved too — but some alts have already posted solid returns in the past month. Many traders are feeling underwhelmed because their favorite coins haven’t 10x’d (yet).

→ 40–200% gains for selected memecoins and L2 tokens

→ Narrative-specific pumps (AI, restaking, gaming)

→ Alt L1s showing early moves ($SOL.X ( ▲ 2.78% ) , $SUI.X ( ▲ 5.19% ) , $TON.X ( ▲ 6.99% ) )

So why does it still feel like alts are lagging? Because it’s not euphoric — yet. But that doesn’t mean it’s bearish. It means it’s early. This isn’t broad-based altseason yet.

We’re in a selective rally, not a market-wide melt-up.

2️⃣ BTC Dominance Peaking = Altcoin Rotation Signal

Historically, altcoin seasons tend to follow BTC dominance peaks.

This rotation pattern is what we saw in 2017, 2021, and likely again in 2025 — if history rhymes.

→ Here are what top investor say!

• According to trader @Ashcryptoreal, the real altcoin rally could be driven by macro and regulatory catalysts later this year.

ALTSEASON 2.0 WILL HAPPEN IN 2025.

● QE AND RATE CUTS BY Q3/Q4

● MULTIPLE ALTCOIN ETFs APPROVAL

● BTC DOMINANCE PEAK SIMILAR TO 2021

● REGULATORY CLARITY AROUND ALTCOINS

● RISK-ON ENVIRONMENT DUE TO RISING GLOBAL LIQUIDITY.

BOOKMARK THIS POST AND WE WILL VISIT IT IN Q4

— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal)
11:50 AM • Apr 29, 2025

• Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, put it like this:

BTC Dominance just made a new cycle ATH

This cycle is different because when Blackrock & Saylor buy Bitcoin they just hold it. They don’t swap them for alt coins 🫡

— Thomas Fahrer (@thomas_fahrer)
2:18 AM • May 2, 2025

In just the first week of May, BTC Dominance (BTC.D) climbed from 64.4% → 65%, while the total crypto market cap dropped from $3T → $2.87T.

→ Money isn’t rotating into alts — it’s exiting the market, and it’s mostly coming out of altcoins.

In the past, retail would ride Bitcoin pumps, then rotate into altcoins.

Now? Institutions just buy and hold BTC like digital gold.

No rotation = no fuel for traditional altseason patterns.

• Nic, co-founder of Coinbase, offered deeper insights.

Alt Season – a REALISTIC take.

Here’s my one-post rundown so you can stop doom-scrolling and start watching the right signals👇

🗓 Timing:

Altseasons usually begin ~320 days after a Bitcoin halving. Target hit 🎯

📉 Macro:

The Fed hasn’t pivoted—QT is still draining, rates

— Nic (@nicrypto)
11:47 AM • May 2, 2025

Altseason doesn’t just flip on because BTC.D drops. There’s a whole checklist of macro and on-chain factors that need to line up. Altcoin seasons typically kick off ~320 days after Bitcoin bottoms. And guess what? That timing lines up with right now — May 2025.

Sounds promising, right? Some key ingredients are still missing:

• Quantitative easing (QE) hasn’t kicked in just yet

• Retail appetite for altcoins is still lukewarm

• Developer activity on altcoin ecosystems is quiet compared to past cycles

3️⃣ The Real Market Cycle = Human Psychology

Rewind to just two months ago — Bitcoin dropped to $76K, and fear was everywhere. Many expected it to crash below $60K, some even said $50K.

Fast forward to now: $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.22% ) is flirting with $100K, and the mood has flipped entirely.

→ The biggest challenge in crypto investing isn’t volatility — it’s your own emotions.

Conviction is hardest when the market is uncertain — and often, that’s exactly when opportunity is greatest.

4️⃣ This Is Still Early-Stage Cycle Behavior

We’re in the fourth year of the 4-year Bitcoin cycle — the one that tends to end with fireworks. If you follow past cycles:

(2021 top → 2022 bear → 2023 rebuild → 2025 blow-off?)

So far, 2025 is following that blueprint — slowly. The Bitcoin run we’re seeing now is often what precedes the real altcoin blow-off.

Still 7 months left

5️⃣ Fed Policy = The Missing Catalyst

Back in 2020, altseason didn’t start randomly. It began after the Fed printed trillions during COVID.

Right now, there’s no stimulus yet.

But we’re hearing whispers:

• Fed might cut rates in summer. Maybe in May 7? Not sure, traders and analysts seem to agree on one thing: there’s almost no chance of a rate hike or cut this time. The Fed is in wait-and-see mode.

• M2 still quiet in the US. China’s printing

• US election year = potential policy pivots

If the Fed moves, the floodgates could open — and altcoins will be the biggest beneficiaries.

6️⃣ What Makes This Cycle Different?

Not everything is the same as before.

✅ Similarities:

• Bitcoin dominance → altcoin rotation

• 4-year structure playing out

• Retail still sitting on the sidelines

❌ Differences:

• No COVID-triggered money printing (yet)

• Fed is cautious, not aggressive

• DeFi, DEXs, memecoins, and Solana ecosystem are far more developed this time

The cycle is rhyming — but with new instruments and tempo.

Trader Take

Altseason is not a meme — it’s a macro setup in progress.

If you’re in BTC, great.

But don’t ignore the signs that alts may soon follow.

The market is setting the stage. Are you ready to play it?

---

📊 7 Indicators To Invest Like Warren Buffett – But In Crypto?

1️⃣ The Buffett Indicator – Market Cap / GDP

This is one of Buffett’s go-to tools to check if the entire market is overvalued. It compares the total market cap of all companies to a country’s GDP (basically, how much the economy is producing).

🧮 Formula: (Total Market Cap ÷ GDP) × 100%

Here’s how Buffett reads it:

• Below 70% → Undervalued, good time to buy

• 100–120% → Fair value

• Above 150% → Expensive, caution zone

Some real examples:

• In 2000, the index hit 190% during the Dot-com bubble. Buffett held back — the bubble popped.

• 2021–2022, it soared over 200% again. Buffett didn’t buy, just sat on cash.

• By end of 2024, it’s still over 200%. He’s sold around $134B in stocks (even some Apple!) and is holding a record $325B in cash.

💡 In crypto, we don’t have a “GDP,” but we can look at how fast total market cap grows compared to real usage — like active addresses, protocol revenue, and dev activity. If price moves up but fundamentals don’t, that’s a red flag.

2️⃣ P/E Ratio – Price / Earnings

This tells you how much you’re paying for every dollar a company earns.

📌 Formula: Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share (EPS)

High P/E usually means high expectations — but also higher risk. Low P/E might mean a bargain — or trouble.

Buffett doesn’t just look at the number. He asks:

• Is this company solid and predictable?

• Does it have a durable competitive edge?

• Is the price reasonable for what I get?

Examples:

• He skipped Amazon and Tesla early on — their P/Es were way too high (often over 100), and profits weren’t clear.

• But he bought Coca-Cola in 1988 when its P/E was 15–20 — a fair price for a strong brand with reliable cash flow.

💡 For crypto, we can’t use traditional P/E, but if a project generates actual earnings (like MakerDAO, Uniswap, Aave), we can look at how its token price relates to its revenue. It’s not perfect, but it’s a start.

3️⃣ PEG Ratio – Price / Earnings / Growth

This improves on P/E by adding in the growth rate. A high-growth company might deserve a higher P/E — and PEG helps you see if the price still makes sense.

🧮 Formula: P/E ÷ EPS Growth Rate (%)

How Buffett thinks about it:

• PEG < 1 → Might be undervalued

• PEG > 2 → Probably overpriced

But it’s not just about the number. He also checks:

• Is the growth sustainable?

• Does the company have a moat?

• Is the business model predictable?

Examples:

• Apple (2016–2020) had a PEG < 1 — low P/E and 10–15% profit growth. That’s why Buffett made it his biggest holding.

• Zoom (2020) had high growth, but its PEG was often >3 — looked overpriced to him, so he passed.

💡 For crypto, PEG is hard to calculate, but the idea still applies. If a token’s price is rising faster than its real growth (fees, users, TVL), you might be overpaying. And don’t forget — some projects fake growth with bots or incentives.

4️⃣ ROE – Return on Equity

ROE shows how well a company uses investors’ money to generate profit. Basically: how good is this business at turning $1 of equity into earnings?

📌 Buffett looks for:

• ROE > 15%, consistently, over 5–10 years

• Strong performance without heavy debt (he checks debt-to-equity too)

• Businesses with a durable moat — strong brand, cost advantage, etc.

Some classic examples:

• Coca-Cola: When Buffett invested, ROE was consistently over 30%. Global brand, low cost, huge margins. He still holds it.

• Moody’s: ROE averages 50%+ thanks to its unique business model (credit ratings). Buffett’s held it since 2000.

💡 In crypto, while we can’t directly measure ROE, we can look at how efficiently protocols turn capital (TVL or treasury) into revenue or profit. If they’re sitting on $100M but only making $1M/year, that’s not efficient.

5️⃣ Free Cash Flow Yield

Buffett cares more about actual cash than paper profits. Free Cash Flow (FCF) is the money left after paying for operations and investments — the real, spendable money.

🧮 Formula: (FCF ÷ Market Cap) × 100%

Why he loves it:

• It shows real value creation

• Cash can’t be faked — unlike accounting tricks

• Strong FCF = ability to pay dividends, buy back stock, or reinvest wisely

Examples:

• Apple generates ~$80–100B in FCF per year. Buffett loves the consistency and uses this to justify his big stake.

• American Express also has stable FCF — and Buffett’s been holding since the ’90s.

💡 For crypto, you can use data from tools like DefiLlama to track protocol revenue and treasury size. If a protocol has steady income and retains value, that’s your version of “free cash flow.”

Just be cautious — many projects fake numbers using bots or unsustainable token rewards.

6️⃣ Intrinsic Value

This is Buffett’s core idea: what is this company really worth based on its future cash flows?

He usually estimates this using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) — projecting future FCF, then discounting it back to today’s value.

📌 He buys only if:

• Intrinsic value is at least 30% higher than market price (his “margin of safety”)

• The business is stable and easy to understand

• Cash flows are predictable

Examples:

• Apple (2018–2020): The market price dropped, but Buffett saw much higher intrinsic value based on Apple’s reliable FCF. He loaded up.

• Washington Post (1973): Buffett bought it when market price was ~25% of its real worth. Huge long-term win.

💡 In crypto, it’s hard to calculate true intrinsic value — but the logic still applies. Look at actual usage, cash flows, and product-market fit. Is the token worth what people are paying?

7️⃣ Margin of Safety

This is Buffett’s “safety net.” He learned it from Benjamin Graham — always buy with a cushion, in case your analysis is wrong or the market turns.

📌 He wants:

• Market price to be 30–50% below intrinsic value

• Clear room for error

• Patience to wait — no chasing hype

Examples:

• American Express (1960s): After a scandal, the stock crashed. But Buffett knew its real value hadn’t changed. Big profits followed.

• COVID crash (2020): While others panicked, Buffett waited for clear margin of safety — and bought when prices truly dropped below value.

💡 In crypto, a margin of safety means ignoring hype and waiting for tokens to trade at a clear discount vs their actual value (based on revenue, usage, ecosystem strength). It also means not FOMO-ing into bubbles.

8️⃣ How to Apply All This to Crypto

Truth is — most crypto projects aren’t built like companies yet. No revenue, no profit, just tokens and hype. So it’s tricky to apply Buffett’s formulas directly.

But here’s how you can start:

• Use multiples like Price/Revenue or TVL/Revenue — not perfect, but useful. Lots of data and easy to calculate and widely accepted by the community.

• Track real financial data: revenue, treasury, growth

• Compare different scenarios: Bear, Base, Bull

Some tools to help:

• DefiLlama: Revenue, TVL, treasury

• Token Terminal: Protocol earnings

• Messari: Project reports

⚠️ Watch out for two things:

1. Fake activity — bots, wash trades, and inflated fees

2. Hidden costs — marketing, ops, infra aren’t always visible in crypto reporting

---

⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

🔧 Ethereum just activated the massive Pectra upgrade, featuring 11 new changes to boost staking efficiency, validator ops, and Layer-2 scaling. The update cuts validator onboarding from 12 hours to 13 mins, doubles blob throughput, and introduces wallet-friendly account abstraction—no more ETH needed upfront!

📅 The Fed meets tonight (6 PM UTC), and all eyes are on Powell. Rates expected unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, but insiders say liquidity taps are already quietly reopening behind the scenes.

🚀 Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 0.67% )  briefly popped above $97k, fueled by fresh US-China trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland. Analysts say BTC could push even higher as markets shift back to “risk-on,” despite global tensions between India and Pakistan.

👻 Zerebro’s founder Jeffy Yu allegedly faked his own death after his wallet kept dumping tokens post-“tragedy.” $ZEREBRO.X ( ▼ 13.67% ) token initially crashed, then rebounded sharply – raising suspicions of a bizarre exit scam. Crypto Twitter’s not buying the drama.

❄️ America’s Bitcoin reserve ambitions are hitting a wall. Over 45 state-level bills to add $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.22% ) to treasury reserves have mostly stalled or failed outright. Florida, Arizona, and Utah all backtracked, highlighting continued legislative skepticism toward crypto volatility.

---

🤡 Meme Of The Day

---

We read your emails, comments, and poll replies daily

Hit reply and say Hello – we’d love to hear from you!

Like what you’re reading?

If yes, you’ll love what’s happening inside The Crypto Fire Telegram version – our Telegram group where is no hype, no pressure. Just real conversations, insights, latest news, more trading analysis, entry,… and a few memes along the way. Jump in here → t.me/TheCryptoFireTG

And if you’ve got a friend deep in crypto (or just getting started), feel free to forward this to them. They can sign up here.

Cheers,

The Crypto Fire

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.