95% Tokens DIE After Launch?
Even in their “bear case,” we can see Bitcoin over $500K in 2030 – ARK Invest Report. Impressive data, right? But how many traders can hodl until 2030 if this scenario is true?
Here’s what we got for you today:
ℹ️ Crypto Sources From The Crypto Fire ℹ️
ARK just dropped their updated $BTC.X ( ▲ 0.73% ) price targets for 2030 — and the numbers are pretty eye-popping! Here’s a quick breakdown of what they’re projecting:
📈 Price Targets for 2030:
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Bear Case: ~$300,000
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Base Case: ~$710,000
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Bull Case: ~$1.5 million
How did ARK arrive at these? Well, it all boils down to Bitcoin’s growing role in various financial sectors:
💼 Institutional Investment → Expected to contribute heavily, especially with more institutions adopting Bitcoin. Penetration rates could reach up to 6.5% of the global market portfolio by 2030.
💰 Digital Gold → Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative could drive its value by up to 60% of gold’s current $18 trillion market cap, with 40% adoption in ARK’s base case.
🌍 Emerging Markets → Bitcoin could serve as a safe haven for emerging market economies, with potential adoption hitting 6% of these markets by 2030.
🏛️ Nation-State Treasuries → Countries might hold Bitcoin as part of their strategic reserves. ARK sees 7% adoption in their bull case.
🏢 Corporate Treasuries → More companies could diversify their holdings into Bitcoin, with up to 10% of their cash reserves in Bitcoin by 2030.
⚡ Bitcoin On-Chain Financial Services → Services like the Lightning Network and wrapped Bitcoin could play a major role in Bitcoin’s capital growth, with projected growth rates of 20%-60% over the next six years.
🔥 Active Supply Consideration → ARK also factors in Bitcoin’s “active supply,” considering lost or long-held coins. This could push Bitcoin’s price even higher, with estimates up to 40% above their base model.
ARK believes Bitcoin is on a steady path to becoming a major store of value — just like gold — and its role in global finance is set to expand dramatically.
💡 M2 vs $BTC.X ( ▲ 0.73% ) vs Gold $XAUUSD ( 0.0% )
M2 or Money supply — how much money is circulating in an economy — is a big deal when it comes to how assets perform.
1️⃣ Everybody shares about M2 and its similarity with BTC so why it matters for the market
1. What is money supply?
→ Simply put, it’s the total money available in an economy (cash, bank savings, etc.) that can be used for spending or investing. Think of it like fuel for an economic engine: when there’s enough, the economy grows; too much and inflation kicks in.
2. M0, M1, M2, M3 and MB:
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M0: Cash and reserves at the central bank.
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M1: M0 plus checking accounts.
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M2: M1 + savings, small deposits, and money market funds — the most widely tracked.
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M3: M2 + large deposits, usually slower-moving money.
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MB (Money Base): This includes M0 and also the stored portion of commercial bank reserves at the central bank. Both M0 and MB are incorporated in M1 and M2, which means they all tie into one another, affecting overall liquidity.
3. Why does money supply affect the market?
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More money = easier borrowing, more investments in assets like stocks and crypto.
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Less money = tight spending, higher borrowing costs, and lower asset prices.
Real-life examples:
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In 2020, the Fed increased M2 by nearly $4.2 trillion. Bitcoin shot from $7,000 to $29,000 and the S&P 500 rose from 3,230 to 3,756.
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In 2022, when the Fed raised interest rates and slowed down M2 growth, Bitcoin dropped from $69,000 to $16,000, and the Nasdaq lost 30%.
4. The M2 sweet spot
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M2 is the key number to watch — it’s a better indicator of market liquidity than M0 or M1.
Bitcoin and M2 Growth Global of YoY，If we compare the price of BTC with the M2 growth rate of the central banks (FED, ECB, PBoC, BoJ…) it is observed that bitcoin moves together as the growth rate of the M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have coincided with
— ODIG (@ODIGco)
2:59 AM • Apr 24, 2025
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When M2 rises, the market tends to heat up. When it falls or levels off, the market contracts.
For instance, in 2020, M2 increased by 25%, and so did Bitcoin and stocks. But in 2022, M2 decreased for the first time since WWII, and the market felt the heat — crypto crashed, and stocks went bearish.
So, as an investor, if you want to get ahead of market shifts, keep an eye on M2. It’s your signal for when the market’s about to pick up speed… or slow down. 🚀📉
2️⃣ Has the Selling Pressure Finally Ended? Bitcoin vs. Gold
Everyone’s watching gold break new highs lately. Quietly. Consistently.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin? It just started waking up again — past couple of weeks. Not long ago, it looked stuck. But here’s the thing: Bitcoin will holds $90K, $100K isn’t far. And if we hit that, a new all-time high is within reach. It will made Ki Young Ju (CEO & Founder of Crypto Quant) admit his wrong when said that “the bull cycle was over”.
Tom Lee (from Fundstrat, often seen on CNBC) had a solid take on this.
He said Bitcoin was under pressure earlier this year because institutional players were unwinding their leverage. Basically, selling what they could sell — and that included Bitcoin. Especially on weekends. But now that panic’s out of the way, Tom thinks Bitcoin is ready to move. Catch up to gold. Maybe even outpace it again.
“Bitcoin’s old high was over $110K. There are a lot of room to catch up.”
And he’s not the only one seeing this pattern.
3️⃣ What Usually Happens?
Gold moves first. Bitcoin follows a few months later — but with a bigger move.
We’ve seen this in 2020 during COVID. Gold pumped. Bitcoin lagged, then exploded past it. Same cycle may be playing out now.
Charts show it too:
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Gold’s been climbing steadily this year.
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Bitcoin only started bouncing.
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Based on history, BTC tends to follow gold within 100–150 days.
But it’s not just gold. Sometimes Bitcoin mirrors the $SPX ( ▲ 0.74% ) too. There’s no clean rule. Sometimes BTC behaves like a safe haven (gold). Other times, it follows risk-on assets (stocks).
BUT recently Bitcoin has started to decouple from the $NASDAQ ( 0.0% ) .
CNBCs are saying what many in the crypto space have felt for a while — Bitcoin is slowly stepping into its role as a hedge against political chaos.
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Short term? Sure, it still moves like a risky tech stock.
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Long term? It’s starting to act more like digital gold — something people turn to when things feel uncertain.
And if you’ve seen how gold’s been performing lately, you might have a clue where Bitcoin could be heading next — especially once the macro dust settles.
4️⃣ How Do People See Bitcoin?
It depends who you ask:
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Some treat it like digital gold — long-term store of value.
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Others treat it like a tech stock — high risk, high reward.
That’s why during market stress (war, Fed drama, economic fears), people dump both:
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Stocks.
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And Bitcoin — especially when leverage is involved.
But when that selling pressure fades — when funds and whales stop panicking — the ones left are the believers. And believers are still accumulating. That’s what we’re seeing now.
5️⃣ The Sell-Off Might Be Over
The worst panic-selling may have passed. Most leveraged positions are likely flushed out. Bitcoin’s price is holding up while stocks are still shaky.
That’s a sign.
And let’s be honest: the reason a lot of us trust Bitcoin more over time isn’t because it always goes up – but because it bounces back when everyone says it’s dead.
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2018 – Crashed. Recovered.
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2022 – Same story → Still here. Still building.
Every time it survives, more people believe in it.
Trader Take: So yeah, maybe the worst is behind us. Maybe not. But one thing’s clear — more people are seeing Bitcoin as a long-term game. And if the panic’s over, the only thing left is accumulation.
⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss
🍽️ Million-Dollar Dinner, Million-Dollar Wallet? A cold wallet named “Sun” with 1.2M $TRUMP.X ( ▲ 25.91% ) tokens ($14.5M) registered for the Trump Memecoin dinner, but ranks 12th due to holding duration. Arkham once tagged it to HTX, sparking rumors it’s Justin Sun’s wallet.
🚀 CME Group is preparing to launch XRP futures, adding more depth to their growing crypto derivatives portfolio. This could open up new opportunities for investors in the XRP market!
💸 Bybit now lets you use $USDTB.X ( ▼ 0.01% ) as collateral with up to 95% borrowing rate. Or, if you’re just holding, you can earn a 5% $USDTB.X ( ▼ 0.01% ) reward. If you love farming interest, this might be a perfect deal for you!
🔥 The TON Foundation just announced Maximilian Crown as new CEO. Maximilian, co-founder of MoonPay, $TON.X ( ▲ 6.99% ) is aiming to get 30% of Telegram users on the blockchain in the next 3 years. They’re focusing on mini apps, on-chain games, user-friendly DeFi solutions, and real-world payments to make it happen.
💰 RockawayX Investment Fund just raised $125 million to back early-stage projects on the Solana network. Looks like $SOL.X ( ▼ 2.24% ) is drawing in fresh capital!
🤡 Meme Of The Day
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.
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